The Next Generational Investment

HEADLINES
What You Need To Know

Meta just launched a new AI division called Meta Superintelligence Labs, led by recent high-profile hires including Scale AI’s former CEO Alexandr Wang and ex-GitHub CEO Nat Friedman. The unit will bring together Meta’s foundation model teams, open-source Llama project, and advanced AI research under one roof. CEO Mark Zuckerberg is doubling down on AI as competition with OpenAI and Google intensifies. The company recently committed $14.3 billion to Scale AI, hired Friedman and his business partner Daniel Gross, and tried unsuccessfully to acquire Ilya Sutskever’s Safe Superintelligence. OpenAI’s Sam Altman said Meta is luring talent with $100 million signing bonuses.

Figma filed for an IPO and plans to trade on the NYSE under the ticker “FIG.” The design software company is one of the most anticipated IPOs in years after Adobe’s $20 billion acquisition attempt was blocked by regulators, forcing Adobe to pay a $1 billion termination fee. Figma posted $228.2 million in Q1 revenue, up 46% from last year, and earned $44.9 million in profit. Over 1,000 of its 450,000 customers pay more than $100,000 per year, including companies like Netflix, Stripe, and ServiceNow. Founder Dylan Field still controls over 50% of voting power. The company has $1.5 billion in cash, is expanding its product line with tools like Figma Sites, and recently invested in Bitcoin and USD Coin.

President Trump announced a new trade deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. and a 40% tariff on goods rerouted through Vietnam from other countries like China. In return, the U.S. will receive full tariff-free access to Vietnam’s markets for the first time. The deal comes just days before a 90-day tariff pause was set to expire, which had temporarily lowered rates on imports from dozens of countries. If implemented, this move would raise costs on Vietnamese goods but create new opportunities for American businesses. Timing and enforcement details are still unclear.

June’s jobs report came in stronger than expected, with the U.S. adding 147,000 jobs and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%. Government hiring led the way, especially in local education, while healthcare and construction also saw gains. But not all the news was positive. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, the lowest since 2022, as more than 300,000 people left the workforce. Wages grew 3.7% year over year and average weekly hours ticked down slightly. While this shows the economy is still adding jobs, the drop in participation raises questions about how broad that strength really is. The report also makes a July rate cut from the Fed highly unlikely, with markets now betting on September instead.

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OPINION
Matt Allen’s Take

Every few decades, something comes along that completely rewrites the economy. The internet did it. So did the smartphone. I believe humanoid robots and embodied AI are next.

It’s easy to dismiss robots as science fiction. Something cool to watch on YouTube, but not worth taking seriously as an investor. That’s a mistake. The numbers, the companies, and the capital all point to the same thing: this is real, it’s happening fast, and it could be one of the biggest investment opportunities of our lifetime.

Let’s break it down.

First, a quick note on what this actually is.

We’re not just talking about machines. We’re talking about a new class of robots that can see, move, learn, and respond in the physical world. That’s what “embodied AI” means. It’s artificial intelligence not stuck in a screen, but physically operating in a warehouse, a hospital, or a home.

A humanoid robot is one example. These are robots designed to mimic human movement and capabilities, and they’re being trained using the same kind of foundation models that power ChatGPT. But they’re not alone. You also have autonomous delivery robots navigating city streets. You have surgical robots performing complex procedures. You have robotic arms on factory floors, working alongside humans in real time.

It’s all part of a movement I call Physical AI. And the growth projections are staggering.

The global AI robotics market is expected to grow from $23 billion in 2025 to over $90 billion by 2031. Humanoid robots specifically could grow from $2.4 billion to more than $100 billion in the same time frame. Even more niche markets like embodied AI are expected to grow 5x or more in the next five years. And if autonomous vehicles reach their full potential, we could be looking at a $19 trillion market. Morgan Stanley sees a future with 1 billion humanoids generating $5 trillion in revenue every year by 2050.

But this isn’t just about the market size. It’s about why this matters.

The labor shortage is one of the most urgent problems in the global economy right now. In 2025, 75% of employers say they can’t fill job openings. That’s up from just 38% a decade ago. In the U.S., there are 1.5 million more job openings than unemployed workers, and 4.5% of total labor demand is unfilled.

Nowhere is this more obvious than in manufacturing. There are 603,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs as of May 2024, and that number is projected to grow to 2.1 million by 2030. That alone could cost the economy $1 trillion annually. And this sector matters because manufacturing has the highest economic multiplier of any industry, adding $2.74 for every $1 spent. That means this isn’t just a hiring problem, it’s a systemic risk.

And it’s only getting worse.

Every day, 10,000 baby boomers turn 65. The U.S. will lose 14.8 million of its most experienced workers between now and 2029. Just to keep up, companies need to hire 240,000 people per month to replace retirees. In the skilled trades, three workers are retiring for every one who enters the field. Construction alone will lose 245,000 workers by 2032.

Healthcare is also in a crisis. The U.S. will be short 200,000 to 450,000 registered nurses by 2025 and up to 120,000 physicians by 2034. Globally, we’re looking at a 10 million worker shortage in healthcare by 2030. And with U.S. fertility rates at just 1.627, the next generation of workers won’t even arrive until the 2040s.

This is not a cyclical problem. It’s demographic. It’s locked in.

And that’s exactly where humanoid robots come in.

Imagine a robot that works 16 hours a day, seven days a week. At $15 an hour, that’s $87,600 in annual revenue per unit. Multiply that across hospitals, warehouses, farms, and factories, and you start to understand why this is not science fiction. It’s industrial automation at a massive scale, filling roles where humans are no longer available.

Tesla is leading the charge with its Optimus robot. Elon Musk believes this could become the most valuable part of the company. Given Tesla’s dominance in AI, batteries, and robotics, it’s hard to ignore.

Nvidia is right there too. Their GPUs are already essential for AI training. Now they’ve launched Cosmos, a new platform designed for embodied AI training. That’s why their stock has exploded. They’re building the infrastructure layer for this new robotic economy.

Then there’s Ambarella. They’re quietly building the vision chips that help robots navigate and respond to their environments. These chips are essential for perception and safety.

In healthcare, Intuitive Surgical has already proven that robots can deliver value in complex human environments. Their da Vinci system has performed millions of surgeries with precision and reliability.

Serve Robotics is already putting autonomous delivery robots on the streets. They’re smaller, but fully operational, and show just how close we are to robotic labor becoming a daily norm.

And here’s the key point.

Physical AI is not about replacing humans. It’s about filling in where humans simply don’t exist anymore. It’s about making sure our economy doesn’t break under the weight of retirements, skills gaps, and collapsing birth rates.

It’s a once-in-a-lifetime investment story. I don’t mean I’m buying every robotics stock I see. But I am paying very close attention to this movement. Because the biggest returns usually come from spotting secular shifts early.

On Thursday, I will be sending out a $10 stock to our premium investors that is in the phsyical AI space. I believe this company will grow with the rest of the space. It is a name that is not currently on the radar of Wall Street which gives it tons of upside once it is.

UPCOMING
What You Need To Watch

On Tuesday, the EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook. With oil hovering in the low $70s and geopolitical risk still elevated, I’ll be watching their demand forecast and any revisions to U.S. production. This report often gets overlooked, but it can quietly move energy markets and inflation expectations.

On Wednesday, the U.S. holds a 10-year Treasury auction. Demand here is a key signal for how investors are feeling about long-term rates. Weak demand could push yields higher, which pressures rate-sensitive sectors like tech and housing.

On Wednesday, the Fed releases minutes from its last meeting. We already know they held rates steady, but I’ll be digging into the language around inflation risks and the divide inside the FOMC. Remember, seven members projected no cuts this year. The tone of that debate matters more now than ever.

On Thursday, initial jobless claims data hits. Weekly claims have been creeping higher, and continuing claims just reached a 3.5-year high. If that trend continues, it’s a clear sign the labor market is cooling faster than headline payroll numbers suggest.

On Thursday, the Treasury holds a 30-year bond auction. It doesn’t get the same attention as shorter maturities, but it gives a good read on long-duration risk appetite.

TIP
Why I Watch for Share Dilution Before Buying a Stock

One thing I always check before investing in a company is whether it's diluting its shares. When a company issues more stock, it increases the number of shares outstanding, which can reduce the value of each existing share.

It might not seem like a big deal at first, but over time, dilution can quietly erode your ownership and limit your upside. I look at the share count over the past few years and check if management is using equity to raise cash or fund excessive stock-based compensation. A great business should be growing its value not constantly shrinking your piece of it.

CHART
IBM ON FIRE

TERM
Inventory Turnover

Inventory turnover tells me how quickly a company sells through its products. It’s a great way to judge how efficient and demand-driven the business really is.

For example, if a retailer has $1 billion in cost of goods sold and holds $250 million in inventory, its inventory turnover is 4. That means it sells and replaces its entire inventory about four times a year.

I like to compare this across competitors. A higher turnover usually means strong sales and good inventory management. A lower number could signal weak demand or poor forecasting.